By May 13, 2025
The Draft Lottery is a serendipitous event, where the futures of the next wave of young stars and the NBA’s struggling teams hinge on ping pong balls, a lottery machine, and advanced mathematical sequencing. The monumental occasion unfolds in a 10-minute flash, punctuated by a nerve-racking ad break before top picks are revealed.
For the Hornets, after another year ravaged by injuries and yet another rebuilding season, they found themselves back in familiar territory: praying for the ping pong balls to finally bounce their way. With a generational prospect in Cooper Flagg and a strong runner-up in Dylan Harper, this was one of those rare nights that could change the trajectory of the franchise forever. For a team whose history is etched with heartbreak and near misses, the stakes had never felt higher.
A lot was riding on this year’s draft lottery result for the Hornets. Since the team’s return in 2004, the Bobcats/Hornets have never won the lottery, despite appearing in it 19 times over the past 22 seasons. Each year, the anticipation builds — the promise of salvation dangled in front of them — only to be snatched away at the last moment. It’s the cruel ritual of the lottery, and for Charlotte, it has become a haunting cycle of hope and despair. Unfortunately, that wait will have to continue, as the Hornets once again slid backward for the second year in a row, landing the fourth overall pick — a familiar, agonizing feeling.
The real sting for the Charlotte Hornets isn’t just that they fell back in the lottery — it’s that the Dallas Mavericks’ first-round pick, acquired via the P.J. Washington trade, just became a lot less valuable. In one of the unlikeliest twists, Dallas defied the odds with a mere 1.8% chance to land the first overall pick — the fourth-lowest probability in NBA lottery history to secure the top spot. Charlotte, once again, finds itself on the wrong end of fortune.
The Dallas Mavericks getting the 1st overall pick with a 1.8% chance is a gut shot for the Hornets.
Charlotte own Dallas’ 2027 1st round pick (top 2 protected) which was looking very valuable before tonight. Still upside, but not what it was.
Oh well, shrug and move on 🤷♂️ pic.twitter.com/GmgXhAeOAQ
— James Plowright (@British_Buzz) May 13, 2025
Who will the Hornets Target at No. 4?
The Hornets now shift their attention to the fourth pick, where the debate is expected to center around Rutgers forward Ace Bailey and Baylor shooting guard V.J. Edgecombe. Both prospects are also in play for Philadelphia at No. 3 — if the Sixers hold onto the pick, which remains uncertain. For Charlotte, the decision could simply come down to which of the two falls into their lap.
Edgecombe might be the early favorite to don the Hornets cap on June 25. The Bahamian native has had a meteoric rise — from unranked as a sophomore to a five-star prospect by his senior year of high school. He checks all the boxes for Charlotte’s front office: elite work ethic, two-way versatility, reliable spot-up shooting, and a physicality that jumps off the screen. His trajectory screams untapped potential — the kind that Charlotte might be wise to bet on.
Bailey, on the other hand, measured in at a surprising 6’7½” at the draft combine — considerably shorter than his listed 6′ 10” at Rutgers. Despite that, his upside as a high-usage offensive player remains tantalizing. Bailey averaged 17.6 points per game last season while shooting 34.6% from three, though the numbers only tell part of the story. His shot difficulty was sky-high, consistently pulling up over smothering defenders. His tendency to settle for jump shots and his lack of rim pressure mirror pre-existing issues seen in LaMelo Ball and Brandon Miller — traits that have contributed to Charlotte’s offensive struggles. While Bailey can knock down tough, contested jumpers that make you ooh and ahh in the moment, it’s not a sustainable long-term path.
More Names to Watch
Outside of Bailey and Edgecombe, two more wings deserve attention: Duke’s Kon Knueppel and Texas’ Tre Johnson. If Charlotte wants a dynamic perimeter threat with real shot-making off the dribble, Johnson fits the mold. He averaged 19.9 points per game at Texas, shooting 39.7% from three on high volume — despite playing in a rigid offensive system. His knack for step-throughs and fadeaways makes him a nightmare to defend. The downside? Johnson’s impact outside of scoring is minimal — a potential red flag for a team seeking more than just points.
Knueppel, by contrast, brings more balance to his game. While not as flashy, he’s a better defender than advertised and excels in off-ball movement and playmaking in pick-and-roll situations. His main weakness is a lack of on-ball creation; Knueppel shot just 32% on pull-up jumpers, including a dismal 3-for-21 (7%) from three. Compared to Johnson’s 37% on off-the-dribble attempts and 38.4% from three, Knueppel’s offensive ceiling appears more limited.
The Bigger Picture
As the next five weeks unfold, the Hornets will have ample time to assess their options. But the reality remains: the names in consideration project as high-end starters, not franchise-altering superstars. Will it be enough to turn around the struggling Hornets? Perhaps Charlotte’s luck will change next season with a stacked 2026 draft class looming. Then again, that’s probably what we said last year.
The 2025 NBA Draft will take place on Wednesday, June 25, at Barclays Center in Brooklyn, New York, airing live on ABC and ESPN beginning at 8 p.m.
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